Issue 14 · Autumn 2026
The coast, in figures.
Published twice a year since 2011 and written by the partners. Twelve pages, posted to registered buyers and vendors, and reproduced here in full.
Half year to August 2026
Four figures worth printing.
Market-wide, across the six neighbourhoods we cover
- $1,340Up 2.1% on the springMedian price per square foot, all sales above $2M.
- 54Six fewer than the springHouses sold above $5,000,000 in the half year.
- 41 daysFour days slowerMedian from launch to agreed, market-wide.
- 97.8%Down 0.9 pointsAchieved against the printed guide, market-wide.
By type of house
Where the movement was.
214 recorded sales above $2M
- Waterfront $9.6M median $1,910 per sq ft 33 days Up 4.2%
- Hillside with a view $6.2M median $1,480 per sq ft 39 days Up 1.6%
- Village house $3.4M median $1,190 per sq ft 44 days Flat
- Estate over five acres $12.8M median $980 per sq ft 71 days Down 2.4%
Land is the reason the estates look cheap by the square foot and slow by the calendar: two of the four that sold this half year were bought for the acreage and not the house standing on it.
The commentary
Fewer buyers, and the ones left are slower.
Two years ago a well-priced house on this coast was agreed in the month it launched. This half year the median was forty-one days, and the average number of viewings before an offer rose from four to seven. Nothing dramatic has happened to prices; what has changed is patience. Buyers look at more houses, take longer over each, and ask harder questions about what was done to the roof in 2011.
The effect falls unevenly. Waterfront held, and in fact rose, because the number of houses on the water does not change with the rate. Estates over five acres fell, because their buyers are the most likely to be selling something else first. The village houses did neither: they sold steadily, slowly, and almost exactly at guide.
For vendors the practical consequence is the guide. A house priced at the evidence sold in thirty-nine days this half year. A house priced ten per cent above it sold in ninety-six, and for less than the honest figure would have taken in the first fortnight. That gap is wider than it was in the spring, and it is the single number we would ask any vendor to look at before choosing between three valuations.
A house priced at the evidence sold in thirty-nine days. A house priced ten per cent above it sold in ninety-six, and for less.
Issue 13, revisited
What we got wrong.
Twenty-eight issues since 2011, each marking the last
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We said in March
Estates over five acres will hold their price into the autumn, because land does not go out of fashion.What happened
They are down 2.4%. Four sold, the two largest taking seventy-one and eighty-eight days, and both were bought by developers rather than families.
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We said in March
The waterfront will slow first, since it is the most exposed to borrowing costs.What happened
It did the opposite and rose 4.2% on eight sales. Most of those buyers were not borrowing, which is the part we had not thought through.
A forecast nobody marks is an advertisement. Back issues are kept at the office. Ask for one
The printed copy
Twelve pages, posted.
The printed issue carries the full sale table, the six neighbourhood pages and the charts this page leaves out. Vendors and registered buyers receive it automatically; anyone else can ask.